More than a hundred days have passed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and we have a World Bank warning for the global recessions. Countries around the world are facing “major recession” on one end, and “Stagflation” on another, which refer to the high inflation but low growth or not growth at all. It is not the secret and everyone will feel it, the energy and food bills accelerate rising around the world.
Back to the past, we can see a lot of the cases for diverting domestic issues by provoking and actually creating external conflict, where war is one form of it. Recession typically will take 2 to 3 years to get to the bottom and start recovery.
Again, in the history lesson, it is the time, public in general is more willing to accept unfair trade, from corruption to power abuse, as long as what the public in general perceive is a better leader and party, compared with what they experience now. High noble ethics, behaviour etc may or may not be a good cause to attract the general public, as the people are facing degradation of living standards and uncertainty in the future now. You need a better cause to attract the public in general to vote for you, for the election to come (if any).
We saw that a lot of the government is mismanaged during the COVID-19 pandemic, but most of the issues and root causes are planted before it, such as over borrowing loans and debt that they can not even repay.
History continues to tell the same pattern of how the world progresses forward, the weak to let go, and stronger one will emerge with various variables interplay. The invisible force is always there to shape the direction of the future. For those who miss to seize it when it is in their favour or make the wrong decision, the opportunity will be gone.
Back to now, recession and economic boom are the dual face of the reality every country needs to deal with. Preparation for it and act decisively and do what needs to be done. The same is applicable to the enterprise and organisation, regardless of the size. The bigger the size you are, the bigger the multiplier effect will be, if you act slow and make the wrong decision, the impact is also accelerated. Every business person should have a plan, and always have a plan for good times and bad times, what to do next. As the world is in an accelerated transition to fourth industrial revolution (4IR) industry 4.0, co-exist with the emerging technologies and capable of seizing the next big things is a must, else you will be left behind in a short period of time. You saw how fast giant Nokia from the market leader to disappear, how much time it takes, as a historical lesson?
Apple just a few days back released their M2 chip, and new products equipped with it, MacBook Air and Macbook Pro. With it, it is the second generation of the transition away from the Intel chip. We expect the Intel world will have a counter acting product to release, matter of time. Over the long run, it remains the battle for the open ecosystem and closed ecosystem. It is worth seeing how other major emerging changes will take place. Purely hardware advancement is not something the market will feel excited about, as the world already in 2 to 3 years, will automatically roll out better replacement products. Where smartphones are extreme, almost every year they get a new and better model. Long term lead required an open ecosystem, as we can see how Apple originally invented the smartphone category, but there after Android came in, and now the world top 1 and 2, and 4 onward, all is Android phone. Even the smartphone with digital pen, and foldable that currently lead the smartphone category product, all is from Android. Another example is how nVidia rose to be the de facto standard for the graphic processor unit (GPU)? It is based on an open ecosystem by licensing it to various card producers.
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